According to the latest analysis and forecast by IHS Markit,the global demand for newly installed photovoltaic(PV)capacity is expected to exceed 142 GW in 2020,an increase of 14%compared to 2019.In the third decade of the 21st century,the global annual installed capacity of photovoltaics will continue to grow at a double-digit rate.

 In 2018,the global photovoltaic capacity increased by 108GW,and it was predicted at the beginning of 2019 that the new installed capacity would be between 115-130GW.Despite China's unprecedented decline,the latest statistics from TestPV indicate that the global new installed capacity of photovoltaics is expected to be around 126GW in 2019,between the BNEF129GW and IHS124.6GW forecasts.

 China's demand in 2020 will remain the same or even higher than in 2018.TestPV believes that the sluggish photovoltaic market in 2019 deviated significantly from the Energy Bureau's mid year forecast of 45-50GW,due to:

 1.The Energy Bureau only formulated the policy of bidding for internet access and subsidy allocation in the middle of the year.The new incentive policies encourage more investment institutions to wait for market prices to decline in order to maximize profits.From the statistics of newly installed photovoltaic capacity,it can be seen that the new installed photovoltaic capacity in China in the third quarter was unimaginably low.From June to September,almost all photovoltaic projects were in a stagnant stage,indicating that investors,design institutes,EPCs,and component factories were all waiting for the price to fall and completing the rush installation before 12.31 in order to maximize profits.

 Even if we don't have time to rush for installation before December 31st and miss a round of subsidy nodes,many planned photovoltaic projects,such as ground leveling/bidding demonstration projects and ultra-high voltage supporting projects,are expected to be completed within two years.It can be understood that the springs will be compressed and burst before the end of 2020,and it is expected that lower subsidies will encounter lower installation costs in 2020.

 3.The Ministry of Finance and the Energy Administration are also pleased to see the delay in the project,as the amount of subsidy arrears is too large.The subsidy for newly installed capacity can be postponed for one year,and it will soon be a year without subsidies.

 Therefore,the new installed capacity in China in 2020 will not only be a driving force for cost reduction,but also a repayment of historical legacy projects.Combined with the current LCOE,which is sufficient to stimulate interest in the commercial and industrial markets,TestPV's expectation for China's newly installed photovoltaic capacity in 2020 remains at 45-50GW,with commercial and industrial sectors accounting for 30%.

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